Alanna Shaikh's Blog
Rumors and neglected tropical diseases
Alanna Shaikh November 19, 2009 - 12:00 pm
It’s nice to see a mystery solved. We just saw some major panic in Indonesia about a treatment for a neglected tropical disease. The Jakarta Post reported this morning that, after a mass administration of drugs to fight lymphatic filariasis, “those treated by the drugs started to die or fall ill by the hundreds.” They ran the story under a headline that said “Did Disease-Fighting Drugs Do More Harm Than Good?”
The news has been spread by worried Indonesian bloggers, and no one seems to believe the denials from the Indonesia Ministry of Health. According to the Post, “Health Minister Endang Rahayu Sedyaningsih was quick to deny the deaths were caused by the drugs, saying only that some underlying diseases were the probable cause.”
If it’s true that the treatment, a combination of the drugs DEC and albendazole, is dangerous, that’s bad stuff. Lymphatic filariasis is also known as elephantiasis and it causes serious suffering and social stigma. A billion people are at risk for it. Treating it is important work.
It turns, out, however, that DEC and albendazole actually carry some unpleasant side effects, especially for people who are infected. In particular, headaches, nausea, and fever - often quite severe. They’re not long-lasting, or dangerous. Just very unpleasant.
All of this points to the importance of educating people about the treatments they are getting. If there had been some clear discussion of the likely side effects, people would have expected their symptoms. A mass hysteria could have been stopped before it began.
Global Fund to Fight AIDS, TB, and Malaria is making do with less
Alanna Shaikh November 18, 2009 - 2:05 am
The Center for Global Development’s excellent Global Health Policy blog noted today the huge resource deficit that the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, TD, and Malaria is currently facing -- a $2.6 billion funding gap over the next two years.
To cover those cuts, the Global Fund is taking ten percent off the top of all grants, calling it an “efficiency cut.” In my own experience, that will work for the first round or two, and then everyone will just start gaming the system by padding their grant requests. They are also only committing to pay 90 percent of grant funding and are assuming they’ll find a way to fill in the other 10 percent in the next two years. Finally, they’re probably going to delay grant approvals until more funding is available.
It adds up to the erosion of funding for HIV, TB, and Malaria, at a time when the money is needed more than ever. All three of those illnesses are made worse by poverty. In a time of global financial crisis the need is heightened not lessened.
Swine flu and panic in Ukraine
Alanna Shaikh November 18, 2009 - 12:58 am
There are a lot of rumors coming out of Ukraine right now about a new form of swine flu, a brand new illness, or some kind of virulent pneumonia. I suspect it’s no more than swine flu with complications, but it’s causing some major panic in Kiev.
Britain’s Daily Express newspaper has the terrified tabloid version. They report that “A cocktail of three flu viruses are reported to have mutated into a single pneumonic plague, which it is believed may be far more dangerous than swine flu. The death toll has reached 189 and more than 1 million people have been infected.” The New York Times has a slightly more nuanced report. They identify the mystery illness as swine flu and quote a WHO official who says that “Early findings are that serious cases mounted because the sick avoided hospitalization until their illness was dangerously advanced, stockpiles of Tamiflu were locked in centralized locations and the supply of ventilators fell short.”
I suspect that the WHO and the New York Times have it right. There are a lot of barriers to access to health care in Ukraine, under-the-table payments being one of the biggest. I can well imagine people refusing to go to a doctor until their lungs were past saving. Avian Flu diary agrees, attributing the unusual severity to viral hemorrhagic pneumonia as a complication of swine flu. They also have an enlightening comment at the bottom of their post from a commenter in Ukraine watching the situation unfold.
Secrecy is not helping the government of Ukraine here. In a nation with a history of cover-ups – Chernobyl being the most famous – the population is quick to panic when they sense that they’re not getting the real story. Getting the real story out as fast as possible and backing it up with access to medical care – is the only way to stop the panic.
Afghanistan prepares to fight swine flu
Alanna Shaikh November 15, 2009 - 1:04 pm
Afghanistan's first death from swine flu was reported on October 18. Since then, at least ten more people have died in Kabul, the LA Times reports. The news gets worse; the Afghanistan ministry of health has estimated that swine flu could infect up to 22% of the country’s population. That’s 6.6 million people, of which 330,000 are likely to develop severe complications. That’s more than Afghanistan’s struggling health system can handle.
There are only 50,000 doses of anti-viral medicine available in Afghanistan. At present, there are no vaccine stocks. The World Health Organization has promised swine flu vaccine to the Afghan Ministry of Health, but none has yet arrived.
Mortality rates from swine flu, even with complications, have been low in the U.S. and Europe. In Mexico, however, they were much higher. Conditions in Afghanistan – crowded, impoverished, and malnourished -- are far more like those in Mexico than the wealthy world. Afghanistan could well be looking at a mortality rate of 6-7 percent, like Mexico's.
So far, the Afghan government is focusing on awareness and isolation to reduce the threat of swine flu. There are radio and television campaigns encouraging people to stay at home if they’re showing swine flu symptoms and to avoid shaking hands and embracing. Schools, universities, and public restrooms have been closed down, as have sports clubs and wedding halls.
Reducing and eliminating crowds is a good first step to preventing the spread of swine flu. It was a big part of what helped Mexico slow the pandemic. However, it’s not anywhere near enough. Afghanistan is going to need vaccine and anti-virals as weapons in the fight against swine flu. And even if they get those, the health system may not be strong enough to wield them successfully.
Progress - and Gaps - in Women's Health
Alanna Shaikh November 13, 2009 - 12:44 am
The United Nations Population Fund organized a high-level meeting in Istanbul this week, calling attention to the economic benefit of supporting family planning and the rights of women. The meeting focused on the challenges that face Central Asia and Eastern Europe as the countries in the regions try to meet the Millennium Development goals that relate to maternal mortality. The meeting issued a progress report that discussed the challenges facing Eastern Europe and Central Asia and the progress that has been made so far. Here’s the good news:
- Maternal mortality has fallen by half, from 51 per 100,000 live births to 24
- Fifteen years ago, more pregnancies resulted in abortions than live births; the ratio has now decreased to 494 abortions to 1000 births
- Antenatal coverage and skilled birth assistance is widespread
They also signed a statement reaffirming their commitment to improving women’s health. It was pretty much the usual stuff – access to reproductive health care, reducing maternal mortality, investing in women’s health and education. These are all important and valuable, but not especially surprising.
A few of the provisions did surprise me. The statement recognized the importance of the private sector, but also recommended that “that ongoing health reforms focused on decentralization and privatization should safeguard access for the poor to quality sexual and reproductive health services including maternal care, family planning, and reproductive health commodities.” They also “recognize the existing inequities in access and quality of reproductive health services.” This focus on making sure that health sector reform promotes equity struck me as both unexpected and a very good thing.
India Can Provide Excellent Maternal Care – But Not to Everyone
Alanna Shaikh October 30, 2009 - 2:16 am
A new article at The Daily Beast highlights the risks of motherhood in India in a striking way. Every year, half a million women die as a result of pregnancy. And for every death, there are 20-30 cases of maternal injury. At the same time, high-end private clinics support surrogate mothers bearing children for infertile couple from the wealthy world. It’s an ugly dichotomy, and it points to financial inequalities and health sector weakness.
Human Rights Watch has a new feature on maternal mortality in India, and they found that most maternal deaths come from bad referrals. Women in life-threatening emergencies were being referred to health facilities that either would not accept them or couldn’t provide the care they needed. (Women at private surrogacy clinics, of course, are already at a facility that can handle obstetric emergencies.)
Overcoming this problem this would require a two-prong solution. Better referral systems, to make sure women are going somewhere that can care for them, and more facilities equipped to take emergency referrals. Both of those things are tough to achieve.
Amnesty International Accuses Israel of Stealing Water
Alanna Shaikh October 27, 2009 - 6:32 am
Amnesty International issued a new report today accusing Israel of unjust division of water resources. Or, as they put it, “denying Palestinians the right to access adequate water by maintaining total control over the shared water resources and pursuing discriminatory policies.” They state that Israel uses more than 80% of the Mountain Aquifer, one of many water sources for Israel and the only one for the West Bank.
The report goes on to say that:
In the Gaza Strip, 90 to 95 per cent of the water from its only water resource, the Coastal Aquifer, is contaminated and unfit for human consumption. Yet, Israel does not allow the transfer of water from the Mountain Aquifer in the West Bank to Gaza…Stringent restrictions imposed in recent years by Israel on the entry into Gaza of material and equipment necessary for the development and repair of infrastructure have caused further deterioration of the water and sanitation situation in Gaza, which has reached crisis point…Over more than 40 years of occupation, restrictions imposed by Israel on the Palestinians’ access to water have prevented the development of water infrastructure and facilities in the OPT, consequently denying hundreds of thousand of Palestinians the right to live a normal life, to have adequate food, housing, or health, and to economic development…
This is ugly stuff, and it doesn’t exactly bode well for peace efforts.
Israel does deny the charges. Reuters reports that “Israel's water authority called the report 'biased and incorrect, at the very least' and said that while there was a water gap, it was not nearly as big as presented in Amnesty's findings.”
Too Many Orange Trees in China?
Alanna Shaikh October 27, 2009 - 5:20 am

I was intrigued by this article on Reuters, reporting that Chinese farmers have planted too many citrus trees. As a result, fruit prices have plummeted and farmers are having trouble finding markets for their citrus at all. That alone is rough on fruit farmers, but the market glitch should work itself out in a couple of years as farmers find new ways to sell and use their fruit. In the meantime, rural China may find itself better nourished on cheap fruit.
However, the larger Chinese economy may face the same issues on a macro scale. The Chinese government’s focus on economic growth as it shifted to capitalism had a bias toward overcapacity; private investors flooded whole sectors with money to gain competitive advantage as fast as possible. Now the government is worried about over capacity in the steel, cement, flat glass, chemically processed coal, polysilicon and wind turbine sectors. The kind of investment needed for that kind of production is also the kind of investment that leads to bankruptcies if demand is flat. And a wave of bankruptcies would be extremely rough on the Chinese economy.
Powerful Images of Global Drug Control
Alanna Shaikh October 22, 2009 - 5:06 am
In honor of our 100th year of global drug control efforts, the Boston Globe is running a new photo series highlighting anti-drug operations around the world. They’re very powerful – and upsetting -- images, and they cast efforts to control illegal drugs in a new light.









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Women Will Be Hit Hardest By Climate Change
Alanna Shaikh November 20, 2009 - 12:49 pm
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The poorest billion people on the planet contribute only 3% of the global carbon footprint. Those same billion people will also bear the brunt of climate change. Those people tend to be farmers, and they tend to be women.
The UN Population Fund has issued a new state of the world’s population report about the impact of global climate change on women, stating that “Drought and erratic rainfall force women to work harder to secure food, water and energy for their homes…Girls drop out of school to help their mothers with these tasks. This cycle of deprivation, poverty and inequality undermines the social capital needed to deal effectively with climate change.”
In response to the stunning inequality of the impact of climate change, UNFPA calls for measures to improves the lives of women and mitigate the impact of climate change. That includes supporting education for women and girls, expanding access to reproductive health services, and doing better research on gender and population dynamics in climate change. It’s small stuff compared to the magnitude of the problem of climate change. Better, though, than nothing.