IAEA Report on Iran: What’s Next

The much anticipate bombshell report from the IAEA on Iran’s nuclear activities is out.  The drama now moves to the IAEA Board of Governors which can recommend a course of action to deal with the report’s conclusion that Iran has a robust and ongoing nuclear program despite international prohibitions.

The United States and Europe are clamoring for the Governors to refer the report to the Security Council, presumably where they would push for further sanctions.  Russia and China are a bit more cautious and there are a number of swing states  in Latin America, Asia and Africa that would need to be convinced one way or the other before the Board can take action.

The IAEA Board consists of 35 member states and a two-thirds majority is required to refer the situation to the council.

Argentina, Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Cuba, Czech Republic, Ecuador, Egypt, France, Germany, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Jordan, Korea, Republic of, Mexico, Netherlands, Niger, Portugal, Russian Federation, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Sweden, Tunisia, United Arab Emirates, United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, United Republic of Tanzania and United States of America.

They will meet next in December. Expect some heavy politicking between now and then. (Incidentally, that December conference of the IAEA is also the next opportunity for Palestine to take a step towards becoming an IAEA member state, which would necessitate American withdrawal from the IAEA. But that is another story all together...)